Sometimes the Experts are Full of Shit

My day-to-day continuously evolved over the last six years at AAP.

I started exploring technology and building my understanding up to a place where I could manage multi-million dollar projects that return tens and hundreds of dollars per year in revenue.

I build annual operating plans for my team. Telling peers, partners, and leadership what we need to develop to hit our financial goals.

I forecast and manage CapEX and OpEX budgets that enable us to execute the near and long-term vision of our organic channel.

And in this role, I manage the relationships with multiple vendors that enable myself, the team, and our organization to succeed.

I’ve taken this team from sub $100m to our record last year of $510m, and I’m not slowing down.

An exciting aspect of this role due to budget and scale… I get significant access to Industry leaders and company leadership throughout tech.

Sometimes in this scenario, you walk away with a refreshing view of what could be and a future you're excited to build.

Other times, you walk away confused.

Most of the time, the adage "never meet your heroes" holds true.

Bobby's Dad:

My childhood friend Bobby had a Zune… no one could figure out why.

It was interesting, to say the least.

One thing that stuck out to me was the screen sucked... 133 ppi vs. iPod classic 5th gen at 326ppi

Build quality, it felt cheap. And for this initial Zune, 30 GB was the only option; iPod had 30-160 GB options.

Bobby's dad was a Microsoft employee.

This guy never let you hear the end of how cool the Zune was.

Quality of build - outta this world.

Sound quality…sprouted tears of joy to all who could hear.

On and on.

On top of all this, he's one of, if not the only person I knew with a Microsoft phone (wtf knows which models), and over the years, he had many of them.

Same deal.

Hey Matt, check this thing out. I just picked up a new HTC Touch Diamond2 with the new windows professional os on it…

On on, and it would go.

Telling me how, in every way, even in ways no one could imagine, the Microsoft products were better than the market leaders…

I thought it was strange then; I think it's odd now.

It cultivated a healthy skepticism for why someone of authority, prominence, etc., tells you about something or pitches something in the face of a body of evidence to the contrary, in this case, market share… no one else in my network hyping up or even making a peep about their windows phone or Zune that can't handle leap year.

Meeting Experts:

As I mentioned, sometimes I get access to people due to my role and the fact they want to sell me on their service, product, or Microsoft.

Sometimes, I'm invited to speak, and sometimes, I'm asked to attend conferences. Sometimes it's on their dime.

Over the past few months, the SEO industry has been through the wringer, multiple high-impact algorithm deployments, and the "black cloud" of Large Language Models ruining the search engine as we all know it.

We've collectively seen "experts" claim - wild things.

And… the flippening of Google and how this monopoly is backed into a corner like a tiger, and we haven't ever seen Google forced to do something to keep market share, etc., etc.

Read more where I dig into the "new era of search."

This week I had a redesign meeting with a large location data platform.

They brought some big guns to paint the perspective of ecomm and SEO's future state from a birdseye view.

I've worked with them for a while now, and I'm familiar with these leaders.

So, the same thing that sparked my past NL ignited my brain on this topic.

I can't fault him. Eloquent storytelling. Truly masterful; I took notes on his approach and setup and how he was tying it to complexity for the wide range of expertise (no knowledge to expert level) within the room.

I find myself doing that more. I'm not taking notes on the content so much; I'm more interested in how they present the info. What they find working well, what I find working well.

The vibes were high, I got to say… and If I had just let it ride…. I would have enjoyed it thoroughly.

Kinda like what my mother-in-law calls "mindless tv." Nothing you have to pay attention to but overall enjoyable and passes the time.

Instead, the meat… the meat was rancid.

And at the end of the story, I made a comment about how they probably bucked heads with another internal thought leader who I met with last month, and this prompted a flip-flop on a main point made only moments early as if it never existed.

From "Google Search is going through changes, but the overall business model isn't going anywhere just yet… we've got time, take a breath, etc."

To something like:

"Yeah, this is it, boys, the end of days. Google's mad, they're burning it down, just trying to figure out how to monetize SGE, and then it's game over… they'll say- too bad, so sad - to all that die in their wake."

I'm not here to judge the person; I'm here to consider the ideas because I'm running a half-a-billion-dollar team…

And he, well… I guess he gets paid to talk.

It's like professor vs professional. I lucked out and learned most of my chemistry from professors that had storied careers in manufacturing and chemical engineering.

But some people pay money for a degree from a bozo that went from undergrad to grad school to uni and winds up tenured without a single day spent making money with their sacred knowledge.

It was always really something to behold.

It's easy to spot they cherish theory because they haven't ever needed to apply creativity, the creativity required to get things done, in "the real world" outside of the rigid halls of right/wrong vs. what is possible and what works.

I digress.

This is exactly what I'm dealing with. Performative futurists preaching a vision of the future based on their favorite company and a future they drive for private gain.

Meetings like this or navigating the industry as a whole - requires a fully charged bullshit meter, one that is locked on as much of the SEO industry as possible with a heaping helping of overall Tech/ scientific development etc. (you've got to love learning, otherwise you're gonna be left in the dust)

So we're clear, many people think Google's in danger.

The idea that Google has never had to pivot or shift priorities came up.

There was a comment made about the avg age of companies on the S&P 500… being only 16 years.

Obviously, MSFT is older than that, but the general idea is that ‘Microsoft had and is capable of pivoting and remaking itself - Google never has.’

There hasn't been this level of turmoil for the Search Engine industry as a whole - EVER.

I left that meeting thinking more and more about the quality of the content and ideas shared based on my perspective.

So much of it didn't sit right.

I had to take a deeper dive for myself.

See For yourself

Pro-tip, if it bothers you, peel the onion.

Dig through the layers of a topic and build your own understanding and perspective.

One by one, let's take it all on:

• Google's in danger

• Google's age and "stagnation."

• Search Engine Turmoil "never before."

• Google's gonna burn it all down

Google's in danger:

Well, like I said a month ago… no.

Just as I said then, it still holds true:

Don't take my word for it.

Google's Q2 FY 23 revenue landed at $74.8b and beat its expectations of $72.8b… That's insane for any company.

Revenue rose 7% from Q2 FY '22.

Ad rev was up 3.3% at $58b…

If that doesn't make it abundantly clear.

Google's search engine market share grew by .8 over last year… to 92.66% of the global market share.

Conversely, Bing's (MSFT) market share fell by 13%.

This by itself proves to me the pressure… is weak at this point.

Let’s think back. Use our brains.

• Bing announces ChatGPT capability Feb '23

• Samsung forces Google to announce LLM capability April '23

Both markets are moving - but equally proving to be a reactionary flash in the pan.

That was my gut instinct, but it helps because I didn't just start using OpenAi products in December '22. (I go through this in-depth in the above-linked article from last month)

I've been plugged in for a while now because it's part of my job to know. And I have to make decisions based on my awareness of this technology. It isn't a game; it's not a pat on the back, if I get it wrong.

Is Google in danger? No. Their biggest point of risk at this point is fear because data sets right now are proving ChatGPT to be waning in usefulness as of June '23… ChatGPT is getting dumber because of y’all, lol.

Here’s the link to the paper: How is ChatGPT Behavior Changing Over time?

Next,

Google's age and "stagnation":

Claiming the avg age of the S&P 500 is 16 yrs old (or 18 based on what I was looking at, which is a bit dated), and more and more companies are cycling out faster and faster.

And Google has thrived on a single point of failure as its main revenue driver for this entire time. (YouTube isn't real, I guess)

But

Microsoft has been able to remake itself time and time again.

Something Google never had to do - is a very strange argument.

One I'm sure Bobby's dad would use had I phoned a friend.

Honestly, It's apples and oranges from my perspective.

Google is ~24 yrs old. ~20 yrs publicly trading and absolutely dominating the search engine market.

And yes, they've done so because they have the best product. It's not even a question.

No one else even came close when it mattered.

Compare that to Microsoft's control of the most relevant industry to its offering.

• Windows 68% market share

• Edge 5% market share

• M Office Suite 20% market share

• Xbox 97% worldwide market share

• Azure 23% market share

They've got plenty of other products I'm sure Bobby's dad loves, but no one else knows about.

Take 'Microsoft Maps' for example… I never heard of that before today.

If you want me to believe Google is dying and kids don't use Google to do things, I'm going to need more than a few ex michaelsoft binbows employees to hype me up on that idea.

You're not going to TikTok to order pizza. You're not going to Snapchat to find out how to make an Excel formula. You're not using Instagram to learn about changing your radiator. Your not playing light saber in the Metaverse with Zucc, You're not using Bing…

Seriously, what is the argument here? Social media and entertainment are going to eat the "how do I, where do I, what is this, Who sells, how much" market?

To that, I say we're all waiting. We've heard it for over a decade now. We remember "The Death of SEO," published on Forbes the year before I started my SEO career.

It's a tired lure.

Search Engine Turmoil "never before."

I touched on some reasons that fit here as well.

Social media is going to kill SEO. See above. Absolute Joke.

Voice search was supposed to do the same. Instead, I've got multiple hot mics WITH Cameras placed around my house to improve efficiency. But all they really do is suck me dry for data. vCool.

Honestly, Master Chief would be appalled at what they did to Cortana.

Not to mention a whole period of time where Amazon was going to eat all of Ecommerce, and no one would ever use Google to look for products Ever. Again.

Seriously, fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have always been the name of the game for SEO, so I never understand the collective pearl-clutching when SoMeTHinG ChANges.

Google's own martin split said two years ago voice search was nothing to worry about. And, if we all collectively use our brains, he’s right. We use voice search on the TV, that’s about it.

Again, It's not that LLMs being buckled into Search Egnies is nothing. It's clearly, not nothing.

My point is and stays that the forecast isn't as tumultuous as the talking heads, that love to churn the conversation and build their impact by being the first to call "it" for the end of the world want to claim.

We've seen this type of fear-mongering before.

No one wins if they are right.

Bing has the most well-known and heavily utilized LLM; it's more of a household name than Bing itself lol. AND even then, it can't take market share from Google. I find that to be odd.

Google's gonna burn it all down:

Okay, February of 2023 when ChatGPT hit 100m users 2 months post-launch, I thought to myself, yeah. Google search, they might be in trouble.

"Checks the market share graphs" - nothing.

But - countless editorials were posted about how Bing was on the move and Google was shitting its pants in a scramble.

April rolls around, and rumblings that Samsung is threatening to ditch Google search on its android phones and load Bing search instead… we covered this. It never came to fruition.

Still no movement on market share.

At what point do you believe the kid that cried wolf. Especially when you're seeing more wolves dead and more kids safe.

We’re talking about a government intervention-level event because of GDP forest fires that this would ignite globably. You’re idea is:

Google’s gonna burn down it’s revenue engine because of a Partnership between MSFT and OpenAI: a company that might as well not have a search engine and a company that has a product everyone treats like a search engine but isn’t built for information retrieval?

And Google’s gonna do this all after it just beat earnings by multiple billions in the face of this Bing power grab?

All while the verdict is coming out on LLMs, and it’s not what the Gods promised?

That’s the idea?

Eh, I’ve heard better.

Don't meet your heroes:

It's a great adage. Don't meet your heroes.

Sometimes they're full of shit.

In my opinion, most people being paid for their influence and thoughts on the industry aren't going to be the best ones to follow around when you're trying to make business decisions.

The thing is, most people have an ulterior motive. They all have a reason behind the why, and you might not align with that. Ideologically or even economically.

Bottom line: Bobby's dad ain't got the answers, sway.

Join me as I build - Beyond the Dashboard, and share what's on my mind.

Matt

P.S. As always, I'm here to help you on your SEO journey. So if you have any questions or need advice on your website, don't hesitate to get in touch!

Apologies for the delay. I've got a few half-baked newsletters, and none seemed right for this week.

Cool Cars:

I thoroughly enjoyed this video. 1988 Porsche 911. An absolute beauty.

Cool links:

Do you know how I said dig in? Well, I do that a bit too much sometimes.

I started researching the avg age of S&P500 companies, and that led to a McKinsey post from 2016…

From there, I was looking at a random article by Andy Lin… not sure who that is. But I read something odd - he listed the five oldest companies in the world.

Oddly enough, most of them weren’t older than a company I started my career at - Johnson Matthey and so It got me wondering. This list has to be wrong… Right?

So I jumped back into Google ‘top 5 oldest companies’ and found the OG content Andy scooped his list from, but it says “5 of the oldest.” leaving me thinking, ah, this is just a curated list, not the list as Andy made it seem.

So Look for the list of the oldest companies.

Extremely interesting stuff… we’re talking companies 1300 years old. Still nothing including Johnson Matthey, but I think there are considerations that I’m not aware of. Mergers etc. Although JM claims to be in its 3rd century of continuous operation… maybe the name changed.

Regardless. From there, I’m hooked - 1300+ Yr old Hotels in Japan!

So now I’m here reading the Wikipedia page for a 1318-year-old hotel on a hot spring in Japan…. and I notice that 52 generations of the same family have operated it until a few years back. WTF.

You got me. Why is this segment quoting a YouTube video? Well, let’s take a look.

And boom. I’m Joining 6.6m other people watching Tom Scott; never heard of him before today, talk about a 1300-year-old hotel in Japan and how it changed hands, and the family said, “fuck it” We hate managing hotels after 52 generations. - all that can be found here.